The Path to Oscar Victory for Every Best Picture Nominee | Modern Society of USA

The Path to Oscar Victory for Every Best Picture Nominee

The Path to Oscar Victory for Every Best Picture Nominee

What will win the best picture Oscar? This year, the precursors that are supposed to narrow the field have served only to spread the wealth: The top guild prizes have gone to several movies, and you could still make a strong case for any of the eight nominees to ultimately prevail.

So below, your Carpetbagger will do just that. Ranked in order of strength, here are the contenders for best picture and the path each movie has to potential Oscar victory.

[Fill out your Oscar ballot.]

Working against it: Though the academy has become more international as it tries to diversify its membership, there is still real doubt about whether a foreign-language film can win best picture, let alone one distributed by Netflix, a streaming service that has skeptics in the academy membership. A split between the winners of best picture and best director has recently become common, and if you assume Cuarón is a lock to win best director, this may encourage voters to go a different way with best picture.

In its favor: “BlacKkKlansman” is one of only three contenders to score nominations for directing, screenwriting and editing, the traditional signs of strength that a nominee can win. In fact, this Spike Lee hit has had serious stamina all season, showing up in the nominations list for nearly every guild.

Working against it: Though “Black Panther” winning best picture would give us a capital-m Moment, it’s going to be awfully hard to get there when the film couldn’t manage Oscar nominations for its director, screenplay or any cast members.

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